Brenternet (The World as seen by Brent Moore)

Trying to appeal to the highest common denominator. I can't give you 110% effort, but I will give you 107.4% effort. If you're a spammer and leave me a comment, I will make fun of you. I use twice as many semicolons compared to most other bloggers

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Location: Smyrna, Tennessee, United States

As the title implies, I am Brent K. Moore. I married MariLynn Simons on Sept. 25, 1999. we attend Stewart's Creek Church of Christ. We have five pets, a dachshund, Slinkie, a malamute, Juno, and three rabbits, Ebunny and Ifurry, and now Houdini.

Monday, March 13, 2006

A Random Number Generator plays the NCAA Bracket

This is how much I know about College basketball:


But, I do have a basic understanding how the NCAA tournament works, and that its the subject of numerous contests. I did what I haven't done in years, I signed up for a tournament contest, and filled out the contest using a random number generator.

To me, all the teams are numbers, not names (based on their seed). Using my formula (see below) I filled out my brackett. As a Nashvillian, I didn't know that Memphis or UT were any good until I saw them with good seeds. I submitted my picks in two different scoring formats. Contest 1 awards points solely on getting the picks right. Contest 2 rewards picking upsets.

I'll post again in a few weeks to see how I did. Generally speaking, my overall score turns out average.

Technical details about my formula: (feel free to skip this part)
(Note: I have edited this post a dozen times, and blogger keeps messing up my formulas, so I have to spell some of it out)
T1=The higher ranked seed
T2=The lower ranked seed
RN=Random number generated for each game, such that RN is greater than 0, but less than 1.
score1 = T1 x RN
score2 = T2 x (1-RN)
if score1 is less than score 2, then T1 advances to the next round. Else, T2 advances with an upset.

example: 1st round matchup between #7 Georgetown and #10 Northern Iowa. Even if I followed college hoops, my brain would be too full to know how to predict this. The random number generated was .613
score1 = T1 x RN = 7 x .613 = 4.291
score2 = T2 x (1-RN) = 10 x .387 = 3.870
4.291 > 3.870, thus Northern Iowa gets the upset.

Using this formuala, its tough to upset a #1, but the lower the higher-ranked seed, the more likely an upset is possible.

What were the final results?
Duke wins it all.
The Final Four has 3 of the #1 seeds and UCLA. (local Belmont doesn't knock them off, sorry!)
Unexpected teams to win 2 rounds: #6 Indiana, #12 Utah St., #5 Nevada, #11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Other teams to have a 1st round upset: #9 UNC-Wilmington, #11 So. Ill., #10 NC State, #9 Bucknell, #14 Xavier, #10 Alabama, #9 UAB, #13 Air Force, #14 So. Alabama, #10 Northern Iowa.


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